obama up by 2, 2 1/2, 3 points. in history, candidates overcome leads like that, it's pretty hard. a small lead, when you have so few undecided voters left, thard of the state already voted and turned out, it's challenging and that's romney's biggest hurdle, entirely ohio. >> have you been described as a potential one-term celebrity pollster. how did you react? you are a bit of a rising superstar. if you get it wrong, obama 75% chance of winning. if he were to lose now, will you resign? what happens to positivelister experts like you? >> this is where we give probabilities. a weather forecaster said hurricane sandy had a 30% chance of bad enough to warn the subway system. we give mitt romney a 30% chance of becoming president. 30% chance could come up quite a bit. some of the critics are not very good at doing math and probability, and in politics, people tend toward one side is always right, or everything is 50/50, and the real exists on the margin. and i think obama has an edge in the polls in ohio. >> are you seeing any polls in the last 24 hours which suggest that the hurricane